Last Wednesday, Valatan at VeB came up with a little contest in which you have to guess who makes the Cardinals opening day roster, which nine players start on opening day, and which Cardinals are the spring training leaders for HR, W, AB, and the lowest ERA. I went for an extremely unlikely scenario in which a pair of unfairly (my opinion) maligned Cardinals—Braden Looper and Juan Encarnacion—are packaged with Tyler Johnson and a prospect for the Phillies to complete a salary dump of Jon Lieber and Pat “The Bat” Burrell. I don’t know that this trade would benefit either team, but I’d expect the Phillies to do better from it—I expect Juan and Looper to have very good seasons. I was trying to shake things up there, everyone was picking the same 25-man roster, since it’s pretty much set in stone, barring Cody Haerther beating out Preston Wilson, Brendan Ryan beating out Aaron Miles, or Skip Schumaker beating out So Taguchi—and the youngster would have to beat out the veteran badly, considering the team would be out a million bucks on the vet. The only real questions are on the pitching staff—the conventional wisdom is that Ryan Franklin wins the fifth spot and I expect that he will—even though in my scenario there I had Jon Lieber penciled in there, with Franklin not making the team.
To get to the point of this post, I think that Chris Narveson will make the opening day roster. I think he’d do well as a long-reliever/spot starter in the mold of Darren Oliver, also a left-hander with similar peripherals and unproblematic L/R splits. It makes sense that if he has a good enough spring that other clubs would be likely to claim him off waivers, that it’s better to force him to sink or swim for the ‘Birds rather than to lose him to another team for nothing.
To bring the point back to the build-up, I picked Narveson to both make the roster and to lead the club in ST wins. I didn’t think that last guess is too crazy, since Narveson should pitch a lot in the Spring since he’s pretty much got to stick around in the big camp until the end, when they decide what to do with him. According to Derrick Goold’s most recent article on the subject of the starting pitching derby we’ll be seeing this spring, Duncan has planned out the schedule for the starter candidates already. The plan is to have the Carp, Wells, Reyes, Wainwright, and Braden Looper start games, with a crew of fifth starter candidates pitching after them—Brad Thompson, Ryan Franklin, Troy Cate, and Chris Narveson. At the time, I was thinking that Spring Training followed the same rules for win/loss decisions as during the regular season—thought I was being clever in picking a pitcher who’d be pitching multiple innings but not starting games, thinking he’d get the wins the starters didn’t qualify for. Looking through last season’s spring training boxscores, I see many cases where the starting pitcher was awarded the win in spite of not lasting five innings. More evidence that pitcher wins are meaningless, eh?
