Archive for February, 2007

Narveson and Awarded Wins

Monday, February 12th, 2007

Last Wednesday, Valatan at VeB came up with a little contest in which you have to guess who makes the Cardinals opening day roster, which nine players start on opening day, and which Cardinals are the spring training leaders for HR, W, AB, and the lowest ERA. I went for an extremely unlikely scenario in which a pair of unfairly (my opinion) maligned Cardinals—Braden Looper and Juan Encarnacion—are packaged with Tyler Johnson and a prospect for the Phillies to complete a salary dump of Jon Lieber and Pat “The Bat” Burrell. I don’t know that this trade would benefit either team, but I’d expect the Phillies to do better from it—I expect Juan and Looper to have very good seasons. I was trying to shake things up there, everyone was picking the same 25-man roster, since it’s pretty much set in stone, barring Cody Haerther beating out Preston Wilson, Brendan Ryan beating out Aaron Miles, or Skip Schumaker beating out So Taguchi—and the youngster would have to beat out the veteran badly, considering the team would be out a million bucks on the vet. The only real questions are on the pitching staff—the conventional wisdom is that Ryan Franklin wins the fifth spot and I expect that he will—even though in my scenario there I had Jon Lieber penciled in there, with Franklin not making the team.

To get to the point of this post, I think that Chris Narveson will make the opening day roster. I think he’d do well as a long-reliever/spot starter in the mold of Darren Oliver, also a left-hander with similar peripherals and unproblematic L/R splits. It makes sense that if he has a good enough spring that other clubs would be likely to claim him off waivers, that it’s better to force him to sink or swim for the ‘Birds rather than to lose him to another team for nothing.

To bring the point back to the build-up, I picked Narveson to both make the roster and to lead the club in ST wins. I didn’t think that last guess is too crazy, since Narveson should pitch a lot in the Spring since he’s pretty much got to stick around in the big camp until the end, when they decide what to do with him. According to Derrick Goold’s most recent article on the subject of the starting pitching derby we’ll be seeing this spring, Duncan has planned out the schedule for the starter candidates already. The plan is to have the Carp, Wells, Reyes, Wainwright, and Braden Looper start games, with a crew of fifth starter candidates pitching after them—Brad Thompson, Ryan Franklin, Troy Cate, and Chris Narveson. At the time, I was thinking that Spring Training followed the same rules for win/loss decisions as during the regular season—thought I was being clever in picking a pitcher who’d be pitching multiple innings but not starting games, thinking he’d get the wins the starters didn’t qualify for. Looking through last season’s spring training boxscores, I see many cases where the starting pitcher was awarded the win in spite of not lasting five innings. More evidence that pitcher wins are meaningless, eh?

Try this again

Sunday, February 11th, 2007

Pitchers and catchers report on Wednesday night and start drills on Thursday. Derrick Goold and Matthew Leach will be down there—Bird Land and O,YNAG will be checked on an hourly basis by denizens of Redbird Nation spread near and far for reports from our favorite beat writers.

I’ve posted but twice in the past two weeks or so. I’ll try to sum up some of the things I’ve been up to in the meantime here before getting back into a routine of writing at least one decent thing per day.

  • I went to a Blues vs. Maple Leafs game in St. Louis last Tuesday. Ryan Johnson’s two-way play impressed me—I’m surprised to find that he’s tied for worst among centers on the team for the only statistic that I cared about when I was playing hockey, plus-minus. Plus-minus is a simple counting statistic—add one when your team scores a goal when you’re on the ice, subtract one when the other team scores on your line. As a kid playing hockey, it was easy to keep track of and is a pretty good indicator of whether you’re helping or hurting your team by the way you’re playing. Johnson helped himself in that game, scoring a goal and earning some “Star of the Game” recognition from the announcer.
  • I came pretty close to losing my temper while watching the Super Bowl. Not because of the play on the field—that was enjoyable. It’s because the city councils of both Champaign and Urbana recently passed a health code ordinance that bans smoking in bars. The air temperature was five below zero that night and I didn’t like having to miss parts of the game. I don’t remember the last time I got that close to berzerker rage, but it’s been years. I don’t deal well with nonsensical nanny-statery, I guess. The bars are dead and joyless now, populated by miserable patrons and gloating sallies. I actually told a man to go fuck himself the other night for bitching at me about smoking outside—if you know me, you know that’s not the way I treat people, no matter how rude and foolish they may be. In any case, I watched the second half at the Senator’s Pub in the CU suburb of Savoy. I stopped first at the BW3 that recently opened there, but they were at capacity. Senator’s Pub was great—free Swedish meatballs and sandwiches for the game, ash trays, cold beer, enough light to read my papers, ash trays… And the owner bought me a beer and, after the game, a cup of coffee. The joy I felt when I left the place sustained me for quite a few days afterwards. In a way, it’s good that the ban took place during some incredibly cold weather, rather than when it’s nice out. The Champaign city council primary election is February 27th, and I figure the only highly motivated demographic for this ordinarily low-turnout election would be people like me, who are pissed off about the ban, except that live in Champaign. A bar-owner friend of mine had cards printed up with four of the candidates who are likely to vote for overturning the ban. (Feinen, Foster, Glithero, and Henley—I think, will check the card when I get home.) Peripherally related: this sad, sad story. Is the whole world going crazy?
  • I went to the Illini game in which we played our arch-rival Iowa State Cyclones and witnessed a very good fight. The Iowa State player definitely had the upper hand after the Illinois player tried a takedown maneuver. The last home game will be on February 23rd against Western Illinois University. I’m going to plan on going, although that might conflict with Mardi Gras in St. Louis that I might go to.
  • I’ve been working hard at academic stuff.
  • I had the Trogdor song in my head this morning. I said consummate v’s! Consummate!
  • The Illini’s loss to Indiana on Saturday was a shame. Marcus Arnold was productive in the fifteen minutes he played and McBride had a great first half. I thought we’d steal a big win from Indiana there and look great heading down the stretch. The conventional wisdom was that Illinois could afford to lose at Indiana and Iowa if they win all the other games and have a decent showing in the Big Ten Tournament, which will be played in the United Center in Chicago for the last time (in a while) this year. They’re unlikely to get such a good opportunity to beat Iowa at home as they did in Indianapolis. A win in either of those games would pretty much seal and NCAA bid. A loss in any of those other games should require winning the B10 tournament.

Great stuff, huh? Not bad for my 2,175th post, I don’t think. (That figure according to the newly upgraded blogger software, I haven’t been counting. If I were counting, plus-minus style, this would be a minus post.)

JeffWea and P-Dub

Thursday, February 1st, 2007

Over the past week, two free agent signings happened that directly relate to the Cardinals. Preston Wilson signed a reasonable one-year contract with the Cards to be the fifth outfielder who can play all three positions and slug left-handed pitching. The only option out there that I might have been better would be Bernie Williams, should he choose to sign somewhere to collect the 13 home runs to reach 300 for his career. I would have preferred we pick up Jon Knott, who’s probably a better hitter and definitely a much worse fielder—he signed a split contract with the Orioles. Knott could have made a deadly platoon partner with Chris Duncan, if Chris continues to have trouble hitting lefties. I like Preston Wilson, though. He contributes what the team needs: versatility in the outfield and a dangerous bat on the bench against left-handed pitching—and has a great attitude.

I can’t help but steal this bit from Big Ten Wonk with reference to P-Dub and his adoptive-father/blood-uncle, Mookie: He’s my nephew! *slap* He’s my son! *slap* He’s my nephew AND my son!

The second deal involves Jeff Weaver, who signed with the Mariners and then boo-hooed to the press about the Cardinals offering him reliever money (through Mephiscotteles his agent). That got ugly in a hurry, didn’t it? I hope he continues to get his career back on track, but it definitely was not worth the kind of ante the Mariners and apparently four other teams were willing to lay down. Some people at the time doubted whether it was worth the pro-rated league minimum (and lone MiLB 30-30 man Terry Evans) that we gambled last season to see if he still had some good innings left in him. He had at least 8, so the bet paid off for us.

Almost Back

Thursday, February 1st, 2007

I’ll return to semi-regular posting soon. Been tangling with a complicated project and grounded myself from a bunch of things that I like doing to motivate myself. Writing crap here is one of those things.

Some of you may find these search plug-ins for Minor League Splits useful. I know I do.

Also amusing:

Brian Knappmiller, a very cool dude who went on a high school trip to Louisville with me back in the day, is producing a film starring Alyssa Milano.

The ‘m’ in ‘whom’ is the linguistic equivalent to the upturned pinky on the teacup. If you make a point to use it, before you know it, the damned thing will start to pop up in inappropriate places. Like when you’re drinking a beer or using an appositive.