Archive for February, 2009

Gameday Links 2009 (Week I)

Thursday, February 26th, 2009

Dusted off the handy python script I wrote last Spring (or the one before)…

The links for the WBC and college teams won’t work, but I’ll fix them once I find out the team code gameday uses for them.

[2/27: Found the WBC team codes from the 2006 gamedays during lunch break and fixed the script. Nothing I can really do for the college games.]

Thursday, February 26, 2009

St. Louis at Baltimore
Pittsburgh at Boston
Houston at Atlanta
Minnesota at Cincinnati
Detroit at Washington
Toronto at Philadelphia
Florida at NY Mets
Tampa Bay at NY Yankees
Oakland at LA Angels
Arizona at Cleveland
Texas at Kansas City
Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
Seattle at San Diego
LA Dodgers at San Francisco
Chicago Sox at Colorado

Friday, February 27, 2009

NY Yankees at Minnesota
Detroit at Toronto
Philadelphia at Cincinnati
Houston at Washington
Atlanta at Pittsburgh
Baltimore at Florida
Boston at Tampa Bay
St. Louis at NY Mets
Colorado at LA Angels
San Diego at Cleveland
Milwaukee at Oakland
LA Dodgers at Seattle
Chicago Cubs at Texas
Kansas City at San Francisco
Chicago Sox at Arizona

Saturday, February 28, 2009

Florida at Baltimore
NY Mets at Detroit
Atlanta at Toronto
Pittsburgh at Houston
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia
Washington at St. Louis
?Northeastern at Boston
Minnesota at NY Yankees
San Diego at Kansas City
LA Angels at Milwaukee
Cleveland at Oakland
San Francisco at Seattle
Chicago Sox at Chicago Cubs
Texas at Arizona
LA Dodgers at Colorado
Cincinnati at Boston
Cincinnati at Boston

Sunday, March 1, 2009

Boston at Minnesota
Philadelphia at Atlanta
NY Yankees at Cincinnati
Baltimore at Washington
Detroit at Pittsburgh
St. Louis at Florida
Toronto at Tampa Bay
Houston at NY Mets
Kansas City at LA Angels
Colorado at Cleveland
Seattle at Texas
Chicago Sox at LA Dodgers
Chicago Cubs at San Diego
Milwaukee at San Francisco
Oakland at Arizona

Monday, March 2, 2009

Boston at Baltimore
?Fla. Southern at Detroit
Philadelphia at Toronto
NY Yankees at Houston
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay at St. Louis
Seattle at Chicago Sox
Texas at Cleveland
San Francisco at Kansas City
Arizona at Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee at San Diego
LA Angels at Colorado

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Cincinnati at Boston
Venezuela at Detroit
Puerto Rico at Minnesota
Canada at Toronto
Panama at Atlanta
Italy at Washington
Netherlands at Pittsburgh
Dominican Republic at Florida
Houston at Tampa Bay
St. Louis at NY Mets
United States at NY Yankees
Cleveland at Kansas City
Colorado at Milwaukee
Oakland at Chicago Cubs
LA Dodgers at San Diego
Arizona at San Francisco

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Dominican Republic at Baltimore
Panama at Detroit
United States at Toronto
NY Yankees at Atlanta
Venezuela at Houston
NY Mets at Washington
Canada at Philadelphia
Minnesota at Pittsburgh
Italy at Florida
South Africa at LA Angels
Chicago Cubs at Cleveland
Chicago Sox at Oakland
Kansas City at Texas
San Francisco at LA Dodgers
Netherlands at Cincinnati
Mexico at Arizona
Puerto Rico at Tampa Bay
Australia at Seattle
Chicago Cubs at Chicago Sox
Chicago Sox at Chicago Cubs

2009 Roster Prognostication

Friday, February 20th, 2009

Being that prematurely guessing how the roster situation will play out is one of my favorite things to BS about (see this bit of bad advice for evidence), I’ll stake out an early claim on how the opening day roster will shake out.

Starting Rotation

  • Adam “Wagonmaker” Wainwright
  • Chris “Carp” Carpenter
  • Kyle “No Nickname” Lohse
  • Todd “Colonel/Throw Them ‘bows” Wellemeyer
  • Joel “Sole Survivor of the Planet Krypton” Piñeiro

These guys are all set it stone, barring injury or continued panty-bunching.

Bullpen

  • Josh Kinney: RHRP
  • Kyle McClellan:RHRP
  • Ryan Franklin: RHRP
  • Jason Motte: RHRP
  • Brad Thompson: RHRP
  • Trever Miller: LHRP
  • Ian Ostlund: LHRP

Surprising prediction, is it not? I don’t think the Cards would want to cut Wonderbrad, and that’ll squeeze out one of Motte or Perez from the five-man group of RHRPs, unless they decide to keep stretching out K-Mac as a starter in Memphis, which I would think to be a poor use of resources. I think they’ll like what they see in Perez, but that his tendency to walk batters will keep him from stepping up and seizing the closer’s ring. They’ll send him to Memphis to work on throwing his breaking stuff for strikes and bring him up by the end of April. The staff goes with Motte because of his combination of velocity and accuracy—and also because he gives you a legitimate third option at catcher, allowing Tony to PH his bench left-handed batting OFs for his catchers with confidence. The ninth inning will be handled by working the matchups.

Trever Miller should have a great camp and is guaranteed the primary LHRP spot, barring the usual caveats, and Ian Ostlund narrowly wins a tight race for #2 LHRP on the strength of his refusal to walk batters.

(Non-Pitching) Infielders

  • Yadier Molina: C
  • Jason LaRue: C
  • Albert Pujols: 1B
  • Brendan Ryan: 2B
  • Skip Schumaker: 2B (OF)
  • Khalil Greene: SS
  • David Freese: 3B
  • Brian Barden: UT

I’m still skeptical about Skip moving to 2nd, but recognize that he’s always a fantastic Spring hitter and that he and the organization are dedicated to making it happen, so find it a little hard to believe that Joe Thurston will beat him out for the opening day gig. I think eventually Joe will get the call-up to take over as the lefty in the 2B platoon, but he’s on a minor-league contract, so the team will see how quickly Skip learns on the job. Both Brian Barden and Brendan Ryan are out of options, versatile in the field, and complementary in their offensive skillsets, so expect them both to make the team.

Outfield

  • Rick Ankiel
  • Ryan Ludwick
  • Chris Duncan
  • Joe Mather
  • Brian Barton

Leaving Colby Rasmus off this roster was a tough call, but it just makes so much business sense to wait until May to add him—and you get the benefit of another RH bat in either Barton or Mather. Ideally, Rasmus rakes the first few weeks at AAA and makes it easy to give him his debut—perhaps as early as the second homestand of the 2009 season.

In the meantime, your lineups could look like this:
Vs Left-handed Starter

Barton-Freese-Pujols-Ludwick-Ankiel-Molina-Greene-PITCHER-Ryan

Vs. Right-handed Starter

Schumaker-Duncan-Pujols-Ludwick-Ankiel-Freese-Greene-PITCHER-Molina

Never Thought I’d See It

Monday, February 16th, 2009

But Chester Frazier has Illinois fans recommending him for league MVP… It’s unrealistic considering his shooting is so poor that the shots he does take are largely just to keep defenses honest, but after the kind of abuse that fell on his shoulders from the fans last season, it’s great to see him going out with that kind of respect from people who love the program and pony up to keep it going.

He’s a class act who’s been through far too much the past three years, very gratifying to see him finishing his time here on top. I’ll be interested in seeing where he starts his coaching career next year.

Also of interest in the world of college basketball, John Gasaway, formerly of Big Ten Wonk fame and now at Basketball Prospectus, is unilaterally renaming the standard deviation measurement. I think it’ll stick, for a few years at least.

Breakout Season

Monday, February 9th, 2009

I’m going to pick a player to have a very big season in 2009, causing immense confusion for a lot of Cardinal fans wearing #54 t-shirt jerseys.

Here are a couple of age-25 season lines:

  Level     Ave     OBP     SLG    
Player A AA .297 .378 .502
Player B AAA .298 .361 .478

These aren’t completely dissimilar lines from similarly sized (5’11″, 190-195) right-handed batters who bounced around the infield as minor leaguers. The two players hail from the same organization, in fact, and Player B was in AAA during Player A’s age 25 season, although a year younger.

After his age-25 season, Player A was taken in the Rule 5 draft, and ZiPS projected a .231/.302/.363 line for him that year. He far exceeded it, batting .282/.339/.480 with 27 HR in his rookie season. Player A is, of course, Dan Uggla and many Cardinal fans would be delighted if Mo would trade away valuable prospects for him now that he’s 29 and an established major league slugging 2B. Player B is Brian Barden—after his age-25 campaign in 2006, his OPS fell below .800 for the first time at AAA and he fell out of the Diamondbacks’ plans. After he was DFA’d, the Cardinals picked him up and he’s been a utility man in Memphis.

I don’t think that Brian Barden is going to have a season like Uggla had in 2006 or do to the league what Uggla has done, but I think he’ll be a useful piece on the 2009 Cardinals and am rooting for him to make the team. Barden’s slick with the glove, so the defensive dropoff from Kennedy to Barden would be negligible in the amount of playing time we’re likely talking about. He’s also an excellent defensive 3B and can play shortstop competently (i.e. far better than Miles, doubtfully as well as Ryan). He has power potential: he hit 9 HR last season in Memphis and hit 15 and 16 in consecutive years as his prospect star shone most brightly in 2005-2006. He’s right-handed, so would platoon well with Kennedy (in the PCL last season, his platoon split was .266/.325/.394 vs. rights and a robust .326/.400/.481 against lefties, although his career minor league splits aren’t quite that drastic.)

Brendan Ryan has an option year remaining and Barden does not, so as long as Barden shows up to camp ready to swing the bat, I expect he’ll make the team as the backup MIF, with Freese the starter at third, and six outfielders heading North when Spring Training ends. Last Spring, Barden went 2-11 with 2 walks. I expect he’ll get a longer look this go around and will be rooting for him all the way.

(As for that .231/.302/.363 line ZiPS projected for Uggla in 2006, league multipliers are a bastard… Barden is projected to go .254/.307/.359 this year. Here’s hoping he revives his career and surpasses those rates by a great deal.)

Baseball season can’t get here soon enough, but until then, we have Look Around You to keep us informed and entertained. And that reminds me of this.

Update: What the hell? The Cardinals are releasing Adam Kennedy… I did not see that one coming…

Per the irreplaceable Derrick Goold:

Mozeliak said the intent is to fill the position “from within the organization.”

Club says B-Ryan, Thurston, Barden, T. Greene and, yes, Schumaker are candidates. Free agents Hudson, Durham and Grudzielanek still unsigned.

It took me about ten minutes, but I’ve warmed to the idea. A Thurston/Barden platoon at second would cost twice the league minimum and produce quite a bit while providing good defense and positional versatility. Thurston hit .316/.367/.456 with 11 HR and 19 SB last season for Pawtucket.

Updated 4/14/2009: It looks like I’m full of it and Brian Barden was not on Arizona’s 40-man prior to the 2006 season. I’m pretty confused about why he was DFA’d by two teams in 2008, though…