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Crazy Talk

Saturday, November 10th, 2007

My favorite current Cardinal is Scott Rolen. I love the way he plays baseball—if I have a son some day who likes the game, I’ll teach him to play with the same kind of class and dedication that Scott plays with. I love seeing him hit a key home run and circle the bases full-speed and head-down. Celebrating is for fans. Hitting and fielding is his job. True to form, he’s got a thoughtful, low-profile charity, the Enis Furley Foundation.

Scott’s career is currently derailed due to some hard-luck injuries stemming from on-field collisions and—perhaps more pertinently, personality clashes with Tony La Russa and the Cardinal organization in general. The current GM is open to trading Scott Rolen due to the problems he’s having with the organization and the VeB sidebar is littered with nonsensical trade proposals involving him. Given his trade value coming off an injury-plagued season, moving him elsewhere would be no more than a salary dump. A wasteful salary dump, motivated by fear or foolishness, in my opinion.

Mike Lowell was the 2007 World Series MVP. Two years ago, he was included in the big Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez for Josh Beckett trade between the Red Sox and the Marlins. At the time of the trade, I saw his inclusion as the wealthy Boston taking on a large contract for a broken-down third baseman in exchange for the Marlins parting with an ace pitcher for prospects. He was a throw-in, coming off an awful age-31 season with an OPS+ of 77. It was a smart move for the Marlins, who could use the cost-controlled Miguel Cabrera at third base and it was an acceptable trade requirement for the Red Sox, who could afford to gamble on Lowell bouncing back. He did, and is now most likely heading into a four year contract as a player a year older than Rolen.

Scott Rolen’s a better defender than Lowell and hasn’t ever had as bad a season as Lowell did in 2005, even the past few years when his shoulder pain has caused him to scream noticeably with every swing of the bat. To trade him for peanuts would be a real shame—a damned sin.

If I had John Mozeliak’s ear, I’d make sure that he was making every effort to make Rolen happy, to make him enthusiastic about playing in St. Louis for the rest of his career, or at least the remainder of his contract. I don’t know exactly what the problem is except that it stems from the handling of his shoulder injuries, but I’d make it clear that he’s a big part of our future plans. We’d make it clear that Mo will advocate on his behalf to La Russa and that whatever problems the organization had with dealing with medical problems are going to be fixed.

Scott Rolen’s got a lot of good baseball in him. The Cardinals are a wealthy-enough team that they shouldn’t have to play the Marlins and dump his contract to a richer team who can afford to gamble that he’ll be physically sound and producinc at an above average level in 2008 before reverting to his career arc in 2009.

(As insurance, we should sign Marshall McDougall to a split contract to compete with Spiezio as the big-bat utility guy or AAA depth at a number of positions. I said the same thing last off-season, when he went on to hit well for the Dodgers’ AAA team.)

In short, if the Cardinals can’t convince Scott Rolen to play for us next year, we’re in deep trouble as an organization. Mozeliak should work hard after the winter meetings to connect with Rolen and convince him that he’s wanted in a Cardinal uniform.

Posted in roster moves, Trade | No Comments »

Stoking the Hot Stove

Friday, November 2nd, 2007

I was kind of zoning out, taking a break from work and flipping around the internets looking at awesome prospects like Ben Zobrist, who grew up in a town a bit East of Peoria a big fan of Ozzie Smith, and Jack Egbert, who had a ridiculous season at AA in 2007 and would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft if Kenny Williams uncharacteristically screwed up by failing to make room for him on the 40-man roster when I stumbled over this article about the Toledo Mud Hens offering Alex Rodriguez a minor-league contract for next season. Toledo is home to the Tigers’ AAA affiliate, see, and George Steinbrenner’s pompous rugrat made a comment about Rodriguez opting out of his contract, “does he want to go to the Hall of Fame a Yankee or a Toledo Mud Hen.” Since the Mud Hens have a great third baseman in Mike Hessman waiting in the wings to take over for Brandon Inge, who’s signed through 2010, they asked Rodriguez if he’d be willing to change positions.

That’s at least as funny as the first sentence in this post is long.

I seriously would like to know what it would take to pry away Zobrist. An eventual Zobrist/Hoffpauir middle infield could provide some frequently set tables.

Something else I was considering: the Braves owe Mike Hampton $15 million next season after two injury plagued seasons. From this report, his rehab is going well. Suppose the Braves sign Tom Glavine to be their #3 as many expect and Hampton would be competing for a spot in the rotation with Chuck James, Jo-Jo Reyes, and new acquisition Jair Jurrjens. It’d be an extremely gutsy move for Mozeliak to trade for the then-expendable Hampton, but suppose he does show that he’s an above average or even top-of-the-line pitcher again. He’d be easy to trade for quality prospects when Carpenter returns, so we’d only end up paying a portion of his salary—say the Braves assume $3 million, so we’d be on the hook for around $7M or so. If insurance covers the portion of Carpenter’s salary for when he’s undergoing rehab, it’s not an enormous addition of salary.

That’s only if Hampton is healthy and effective. I’d like to see Luhnow and Mozeliak put together a package of prospects that look good (especially to Bruce Manno, who’s in Atlanta’s front office now) but our internal metrics don’t project to be major contributors down the road. An opening day rotation of Mulder, Wainwright, Hampton, Looper, and Piñeiro could surprise a whole bunch of people. With an improved middle infield of Zobrist and a healthy Kennedy, I could see them outperforming the 2004 rotation.

Update: I floated the hair-brained Hampton idea at VeB and someone pointed me to something noticed at MLB Trade Rumors, that Hampton’s owed $8.25M next year instead of $15m, since Atlanta restructured their payment schedule on his contract with Colorado’s and Florida’s contributions in mind. That’s got me fairly excited. My fingers are crossed that Glavine signs with the Braves well before the Winter Meetings, giving them a solid rotation of Smoltz-Hudson-Glavine-James-Jurrjens with Reyes a promising sixth. That’d make Hampton an expensive, expendable risk for them that the Cardinals would be wise to gamble on. Frank Wren’s shown that he’s ready to deal with the Renteria trade. I’d like to see Mo move fast on this one now that I have a better idea of the actual risk involved.

Worst case scenario: The Cardinals waste $8.25M and a few minor leaguers of the Jason Motte type (nothing against Jason, but I’d guess he’d be one of the better prospects involved). Mo would have a reputation of a GM who can be fleeced, which could be advantageous if his lieutenants do their jobs.

Best case scenario: The Cardinals shore up the front end of the rotation with a resurgent Mike Hampton until Chris Carpenter returns in his full glory and Hampton is traded for high-quality prospects to improve the farm. Mo earns a reputation for novel shrewdness and other GM’s uselessly attempt to imitate his “method,” which was really a one-time thing proposed by a very handsome gentleman in Illinois who he rewards with tickets and lodging for 2008 Spring Training.

Most likely scenario: The Cardinals acquire an about league-average pitcher on a one year contract for slightly more than they’re paying Looper or Piñiero. When healthy, he’d be better than either. Mozeliak grudgingly buys me a Budweiser at a Jupiter bar during 2008 Spring Training to shut me up about how he owes me, man.

I originally got to thinking about that as an extreme high-risk move and wasn’t sure whether I’d be happy seeing it get done. Now I’d genuinely like to see it happen, and fast. Provided, of course, that none of our top 10 prospects head out. Or Jameson Maj, who’s my ultra-sleeper pick for a big 2008. (72:4 K:BB in his final year of college!)

Posted in minor leaguers, roster moves, Trade | No Comments »

Pick a Card, Any Card…

Tuesday, October 16th, 2007

Here are some statistics for two pitchers over four years heading into free agency:


AGE---BB/9---K/9----HR/9---FIP----G:F----P/IP
25----3.48---5.31---1.49---5.44---1.39---16.5
26----3.05---4.95---1.07---4.83---1.36---16.3
27----2.94---4.72---1.38---5.23---1.30---16.5
28----2.25---4.85---1.38---4.45---1.30---15.7
Ave---2.94---5.31---1.24---4.99---1.34---16.63

25----2.75---7.10---1.34---4.56---1.18---16.0
26----2.66---5.10---1.10---4.63---1.29---15.5
27----3.48---4.73---1.25---5.29---1.61---16.6
28----2.40---5.53---1.29---4.69---1.59---15.8
Ave---2.87---5.54---1.23---4.81---1.39---15.87

These are two very similar pitchers at the same age. The second one is slightly better at all facets of his game over this span—he walks fewer, strikes out more, gives up fewer home runs, keeps the ball on the ground better, and needs fewer pitches to get out of his average inning. These are similar pitchers, with a slight edge in peripherals going to the second pitcher.

That first pitcher is Jeff Suppan from 2000 to 2003, before he signed a three-year contract with the Cardinals. Going into 2004, the Cardinals had missed the playoffs for the first time in three years. The Cubs had won the division and looked poised to be even better in 2004 behind their stud starters, Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. The 2003 season was a bad one for the Cardinals—Jeff Fassero, Sterling Hitchcock, and Jason Simontacchi started 28 games combined for the Cards that year. Prior to joining the Cardinals, Suppan had reeled off four consecutive 200 inning seasons. He became available when the Red Sox non-tendered him following the 2003 season. After three years in St. Louis, much of Redbird Nation made a fuss over ownership’s refusal to resign Suppan to a lucrative contract last offseason. He left for the Brewers, who finished ahead of the Cardinals in the division.

And so once again, we find ourselves out of the playoffs for the first time in three years. The Cubs earned the NL Central championship and look poised to be even better in 2008 with solid, deep pitching and a potent offense. The 2007 Cardinals, meanwhile, started 50 games with Mike Maroth, Kip Wells, and Brad Thompson on the mound.

The second pitcher above is Joel Piñeiro, whom the Cardinals signed today on a two-year contract. The signing has caused considerable consternation at Viva el Birdos—as of time of this writing, having inspired over 300 comments across two separate sidebar posts. The comments range from cautious optimism to HE-IS-TEH-SUCK to run John Mozeliak out of town for making the offer, with the majority in the latter two thirds of that spectrum. The contract is for two years—a $500,000 signing bonus, $5 million in 2008 and $7.5 million in 2009. More than I was hoping for, but not paralyzing.

Soup and Piñeiro is not a perfect comparison. As mentioned, Soup was coming off four 200 inning seasons; Joel’s demonstrated durability during his career, but has only thrown over 200 once, back in 2003. Some might suggest that Joel’s strikeout rates versus Suppan were pumped up by his time in the bullpen. This was true in 2006. After Piñeiro struggled to a 4.27 K/9 in the Seattle rotation that year, he was demoted to the bullpen, where he started striking out batters at a 7.40 rate for the remaining 24 1/3 innings. However, in 2007, his strikeout rate increased from 5.29 in Boston’s bullpen to 5.65 in the Cardinal rotation and he was a starter the other years. His strikeout ability is undeniably superior to Soup’s.

Jeff Suppan is making $8 million in 2008, when Joel will earn $5 million; in 2009, the Brewers owe Soup $12.5 million when Piñeiro will be owed five million less. If they can put up comparable production—and I see no reason that Joel can’t do at least as well—we’ll have a nice contract on hand. I wasn’t in favor of signing Piñeiro before last season since I didn’t like the way his numbers were trending. He’s shown signs of turning those trends back around this year and gave us Suppan-quality outings since coming over. The Cardnilly rule of thumb for a Suppan game is that if he gives you six innings with fewer than three runs scored, he’s done his job—got the game to the bullpen with the opposing offense under control. Over Joel’s eleven starts, he averaged 5.79 IP while allowing 2.91 runs to score. I’m betting he can do better next year with an offseason to settle into his role and spring training to work with Duncan, and am very confident he can consistently meet or beat that Cardnilly standard.

And if both Boggs and Garcia are ready to pitch at the MLB level in 2009, Piñiero may make a nice trading chip. The way salary inflation for starting pitchers is going, $7.5 million for an established LAIM should be an acceptable price—if decent talent is coming back in a trade, I could see the Cards paying some of the salary if he doesn’t work out as well as the front office expects.

Like I said this afternoon—nothing worth throwing a hissy-fit about. It’s a risk, but not a terrible one. Our rotation was missing a steady innings-eater in 2007 and gambling that Joel can fill that role is hardly a fool’s wager.

Peripherally related, but it looks like Chris Narveson is no longer in the organization—no longer listed on the Memphis roster and not on the 40-man.

One more: Dug out my 2006 Baseball Prospectus and found that Piñeiro had an elbow injury in 2004 that cost him the last two months of the year. After that, his velocity had dropped and his strikeout rate along with it. His velocity is back up this year, with his fastball averaging 91.53 mph. He’ll look like a real steal if his K/9 climbs as well. Best not to get unrealistically optimistic. (That velocity would give him the second hardest fastball in the rotation… after Todd Wellemeyer. (Wagonmaker’s heater sits a fraction below 91.) [Oops! Forgot Kip Wells, who's fastball averaged 92.29.]

Posted in roster moves, Rotation | No Comments »

Hectic Coupla Weeks

Monday, July 9th, 2007

I’ve been sick for the past three weeks, one of which was spent in beautiful Rehoboth Beach, Delaware with family. It was a great vacation—a week spent sitting on the beach, getting a killer tan and playing with my niece and nephew. I also caught the first game of the Arizona series in which we overwhelmingly won a game started by Braden Looper in his first game back from the disabled list and 2006 Cy Young winner Brandon Webb. Now I’m back to screwing crap up at work.

Some things that’ve crossed my desk today:

An unfortunately named product. R. Kelly endorses the product. I spent Independence Day at Nick’s grill-out party (and we sang karaoke). We didn’t have any fountains, which are fun to jump over like an idiot, just bottle rockets and roman candles.

This London Bomber story is super funny. So’s this headline.

This story about Nefi Perez might be even funnier. That would be a cruel way to open up a roster spot to bring up a far better talent. Adam Kennedy had better pour his own coffee. (Although I’m pretty sure he’ll turn things around and be a solid regular next season.)

Home Run Derby Drinking Game. Hilarious. I’ll add that you should drink whenever someone refers to Jose Reyes as the most exciting player in baseball.™

A New Seven Wonders of the World have been e-elected in a program run by some Swiss buncha hippies. I can’t disagree with any of them. That Statue of Christ the Redeemer is pretty impressive for something I’d never heard of. I’m keen to find out how many votes were cast for the Taga-Jinja Fertility Shrine in Uwajima, Japan, also the home of Devil Rays third baseman Akinori Iwamura.)

I’ll be settling back into a civilized routine this week and thus should be back to regular posting in short time. Glad to see Kip Wells getting another shot in the rotation. As has been said all season, we truly need him to be an effective starter if we’re going to contend this year. Get at it, Kipper.

Postscript: I’ve seen ‘em before, but bound feet always make me feel a bit ill.

Post-Postscript: Deutsch-K! That article was truly fun to read. Silly Germans.

Posted in Comedy, germans, potty humor, roster moves | No Comments »

Just when I thought I understood people….

Friday, June 8th, 2007

I see this and this…

Actually, I’m a little excited to see what Troy Percival’s got left in the tank. (Second link.) Andy Cavazos’ cup o’ coffee barely had time to cool.

That woman (first link) is really strange looking, though.

The Cardinals drafted 52 players the past two days to restock three short season teams: Batavia Muckdogs (SS), the Johnson City Cardinals (R+), and the new Gulf Coast League Cardinals (R). Some of the more raw high school pitchers will join 2006 Venezuelan Summer League phenom Wladimir Mendoza at the new GCL team to learn at the knee of Dennis “el Presidente” Martinez, the pitching coach for that team.

We took Pete Kozma as our first round pick. He’s the best all-around high school senior shortstop in the country and probably the best shortstop in the draft. Some pundits think his skill set will allow his career to peak as a major league utility infielder. The Cardinals are betting that he’ll be better than that—that he’ll advance quickly and give us a solid shortstop for many years down the road.

We didn’t pick up much for third base, although Matt Arburr looks to have good size for a 3B and developed some nice power over the last season. Batavia will have a nice regular CF and RF in Paul Henley and Kyle Russell if we can entice the latter to go pro. (I think we can.) I’ll be looking forward to the short season teams to start playing ball on June 19th.

Finally, I think this Yellow Ledbetter Misheard Lyrics clip is the funniest thing I’ve seen in a while, and I watched Top Secret at 4am this morning.

Posted in Comedy, minor leaguers, mlb draft, roster moves | No Comments »

Very Pleased

Thursday, May 31st, 2007

The Cardinals, behind Todd Wellemeyer making his first major league start, unloaded on the Rockies tonight to win 8-4. Pujols and Edmonds went back-to-back in the fifth, the first time the Cardinals have gone deep two batters in a row this season. It was a fun game to watch. Most importantly, every NL Central team (aside from the Reds, who beat Houston) lost tonight, so we actually managed to improve in the standings. Believe it or not, but if the Cubs lose tomorrow and the Cardinals win the Wonderbrad v. Aaron Cook matchup, we’ll be in third place behind the Brew Crew and the Pirates. And only 0.2% behind the Pirates in winning percentage. It’ll be a big game—I hope to be able to listen to it.

Tommy Pham and Wilmer Alvaredo made their debuts with the Swing of the Quad Cities today after being promoted from extended spring training yesterday. Pham went 1-5 and Alvaredo was 2-4 with a double. Sadly, Pham played centerfield—it appears that his career as a shortstop is over.

I had the crowd laughing pretty good with a rendition of George Michael’s I Want Your Sex at Karaoke tonight. You wish you were so ballsy. Admit it.

Dan Szymborski’s updated ZiPS projections were made available on Monday.

Posted in Comedy, minor leaguers, roster moves | No Comments »

The Kelvin Jimenez Era Begins TONIGHT!!!

Friday, April 27th, 2007

Per Bernie Micklasz, Randy Keisler’s (a.k.a. Boner Stabone) been sent down to Memphis and he’ll be replaced with Kelvin Jimenez, who has pitched exceptionally well in both Spring Training and Memphis.

Walt Jocketty must have read my plea for just that move. (And fortunately, he cut Brad Thompson some slack when I recommended earlier that day that Brad Thompson (a.k.a. Wonderbrad, a.k.a. Thumbson) be the one sent down for Jimenez, who had pitched poorly in all but two appearances this season until last night, when he had all of his pitches working with excellent break.

My recommendation to call up Jimenez was phrased thusly:

I’d like to see Jimenez brought up for Keisler, go with a four-man rotation and an 8-man bullpen while we cross our fingers that Carp’s issues have cleared up with rest.

Bullpen game next week with Thompson starting.

It’s encouraging—and hopefully revealing—that the General Manager believes that Carpenter’s health allows this roster construction in the short-term.

There will be some discussion of whether calling up Jimenez over Troy Cate is the right move. To compare:

                ERA   IP   R  ER HR BB  SO  GO/AO  AVG
Kelvin Jimenez  1.59  11.1 3  2  1  5   12  5.00   .233
Troy Cate       0.68  13.1 1  1  1  3   11  0.76   .191

Troy Cate is a left-handed reliever, who’s made one start on April 15th, which would have been Mike Parisi’s turn in the rotation, before returning to the ‘pen. After Parisi’s control problems his last time out, Cate will make a start in his place tonight, and Parisi will either be swapped down with one of Springfield’s other pitchers or converted to a relief pitcher, with Keisler re-assuming his role as Memphis starter. If Carp’s elbow reacts badly to his mound session scheduled for either Saturday or Sunday (I’ve heard both), Cate could be shipped up to the Lou to start, depending on how Brad Thompson looks as a starter next Tuesday against Ben Sheets.

Meanwhile, we’ll have some much-needed competition for RHRP innings with the addition of Kelvin Jimenez. Josh Hancock and Brad Thompson should be on the lookout.

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Something to Think About

Wednesday, April 18th, 2007

My beloved Cardinals have a two-game series against the Giants starting Wednesday night, when we’ll send Randy Keisler out to face Matty Mo. He had a bit of luck in his last game, when the Pirates clubbed a couple of flyballs that would have left the stadium on a normal evening. If he struggles this time out, it wouldn’t surprise anyone much if he were replaced in the rotation.

The obvious contender would be Matt Ginter, a former first-rounder who’s pitched well in Memphis so far this season, with pleasingly high G:F and K:BB ratios.

Another option may be Brian Lawrence, who I optimistically named the 2007 Comeback Player of the Year back in December. (Glad I resisted the urge to pick Mike Hampton!) Brian hasn’t put up great numbers in his rehab while Rodrigo Lopez has performed well as the Rockies’ fifth starter—as a result, Lawrence will be put on waivers today.

Brian Lawrence has given up 7 home runs in fewer than 35 innings, including Spring Training (in Arizona, given). In spite of that, he’s been doing a fine job of keeping the ball on the ground. He’s had significantly more success at the major league level than Ginter, although Ginter’s pitching better right now and Lawrence’s health is an issue.

If Keisler doesn’t pitch well today and Lawrence is released, I’d be pleased to see us give Lawrence a shot at his 2007 CPOY award.

FWIW: ZiPS projects Lawrence for a 5.02 ERA, Keisler for 5.25, and Ginter didn’t receive a projection.

Meanwhile: CHONE projects Ginter for a 4.68 ERA and Keisler at 4.17, while not projecting Lawrence.

And for those who have really been paying attention, Chris Gissell is pitching and hitting pretty well for Seibu.

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No Carp Tonight

Wednesday, April 11th, 2007

With Carpenter on the DL, Randy Keisler was called up to pitch in his stead. Derrick Goold posted an excellent scouting report/history on Keisler earlier today. Through 4 innings, he looks great, having allowed no runs on a walk and two hits while striking out three.

With the lefty Gorzelanny on the mound for the Pirates, Adam Kennedy and Jimmy Ballgame get the day off with Miles and Taguchi filling in their respective positions. Miles is 2-2 on the day, including a hit to lead off the fifth inning, which I’m watching now after getting home in the bottom of the fourth. Rolen’s dealing with some back spasms, so Scott Spiezio’s out there at the hot corner in spite of suffering from food poisoning. Taguchi’s up with a full count in the scoreless game. Blech! Both Taguchi and Miles are out on a strike-’im-out/throw-’im-out. Keisler grounds out to second to end the half inning. Top of the lineup due in the top of the sixth, Keisler will deal with the back of the order in the bottom of this frame.

Go get ‘em, Randy. Ouch. The Pirates’ number 8 hitter just hit his first home run of the season, a solo shot to make it 1-0 Pirates.

After: That game was a blast to watch. Extra innings, tension, winning the game on a sac fly played poorly at the plate. Cards win, 3-2 and now I’m keeping an eye on the scoreboard and listening to the Spanish broadcast of the Brewers vs. Marlins game, currently knotted up 2-2 in the eleventh inning. (Am also doing lit review.) Losses by the Brew Crew and Reds today would put the Cardinals in a three way tie for first place at this early stage of the NL Central race.

Absolutely unrelated, but this gave me a laugh.

Posted in randy keisler, roster moves | No Comments »

Happy Easter

Sunday, April 8th, 2007

Easter candy should be discounted tomorrow, so it makes sense to break out the recipe for Easter turducken.

And that’s more like it…

News less happily received: Carp will miss his Tuesday start. He had a mild re-occurrence of elbow inflammation after throwing at full effort yesterday. If it looks like he’ll need to go on the DL for a while, I’d like to see Dennis Dove brought up and one of Franklin, Thompson, or Hancock moved to the rotation. I’m thinking Thompson might be the best choice. If Dove pitches well as a setup man and Thompson struggles as a starter as he has as a reliever, we could option him to Memphis to work out the kinks.

Bernie Micklasz says that Blake Hawkworth will likely be brought up to make the start, although nothing official on that. His last start was in the exhibition game against the Cards on March 30. If Carp goes on the DL, he’d next be available (best case scenario) to start the April 17th game at home against Pittsburgh.

I think the Cards will go with the all lefty outfield tomorrow vs. Ian Snell, who’s struggled against left-handers. Preston is 2 for 9 against Snell and Taguchi hasn’t faced him. Skip will need to show he belongs on the roster if he starts tomorrow. There’s a lefthanded outfielder in Memphis who’s doing nothing but show that he belongs in the Cardinals’ lineup. Skip needs to hit to get playing time and he needs playing time to provide the kind of defense that got him on the roster (like in this video.) He had better be able to hit some line drives off Ian Snell. To put Snell’s problems with left handed batters into context: his line versus lefties entering this season was .306/.393/.533—he turns lefties into Grady Sizemore, who batted .290/.375/.533 last season. Go get ‘im, Skip. If he can’t have success against Snell, he oughta be swapped with Rodriguez after tomorrow’s game, if/when they bring up a pitcher to replace Carp.

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Skip vs. Rocket

Wednesday, March 28th, 2007

I added two new Cardinal blogs to the sidebar tonight, both by the same author at the newly (to me) remodeled Most Valuable Network ‘site: Cardinals Nest and That’s a Winner.

I’d like to draw your attention to this post considering whether Skip Schumaker or John Rodriguez will start the season in Encarnacion’s spot, vacated for a few weeks while Juan’s wrist strengthens post-surgery.

This claim in that post is one I have not heard even a whisper of:

The Cardinals weren’t sure where or if J Rod fit into their future plans this past off season, so they worked on a deal to send him to Japan, if he could come to financial arrangement with the Japaneese team. He did not, so here he is back with the Cardinals in camp, fighting for a spot on the Major League roster.

That’s fairly crazy. The Rockies sent one of their players to Japan for the 2007 season: utility man Luis Gonzalez. I assume there’s no special issues with sending a player to Japan—you set up a contract for the player with the Japanese club and then outright him. In the case of Gonzalez, he was out of options and had to clear waivers before heading to Japan, which he did—surprisingly, since just about every team out there could use a decent hitter who can play adequately at all four infield positions (and well at third) plus the corner outfield spots. I’m looking at you, Anaheim.

John Rodriguez has an option year left, though, so it makes no sense that the Cardinals would outright him and send him to Japan when they could just send him to Memphis, keeping him in the organization for bench depth. The Cardinals Nest author doesn’t provide any source for that claim and I’m skeptical that there’s any truth to it.

As for the Rodriguez vs. Schumaker debate (covered by others in the VeB comments), it’s a tough call. You’ve got, on one hand, Skip’s .400/.471/.578 Spring line, his .405/.467/.595 line from the Olympic Qualifying Tournament, nor his superior defense. On the other, his career minor league OPS is .729…

Rodriguez was originally a curiosity to me—an acquisition unworthy of note until he suddenly developed a monster power stroke that guaranteed a call-up. If Mickey Mouse Park were built with sensible dimensions, the man would be a legend. I refer, of course, to the Phil Cuzzi NLCS Game 4. As it is, he’s a guy with a good batting eye who’s worked hard on improving the rest of his game.

An irony would be if the Dodgers don’t bother to find a roster spot for Larry Bigbie, who could be a pretty complete corner outfielder. I’m rooting for Skip to break out, perhaps irrationally.

Posted in roster moves, schumaker | No Comments »

Good Day Sunshine

Saturday, March 10th, 2007

It’s a warm enough Saturday that the windows are open and fresh air is blowing through the crib. I had the Cardinals game streaming on gameday audio and the Purdue-tOSU game on the boob tube earlier. Illinois vs. Wisconsin are playing now in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals. The Cards won handily with the pitching staff continuing to stifle the Grapefruit league competition. Wainwright, Dove, Rincon, Cate, and Cavazos got their work in for the shutout. Rincon has been a nice surprise so far this spring. Hot stove season talk of him was that there was a good chance his pitching career was over after missing last season to significant arm surgery. It’s looking likely that we’ll start the season with three lefties in the ‘pen, unless La Russa chooses to open the year with an 11-man pitching staff, given Edmonds’ questionable health early on and all the days off early in April—in which case TJ would start the year at AAA since he’s got options available. Randy Flores has been solid so far, although his ERA belies that claim. The spooky thing about him last season was the doubling of his walk rate. So far this Spring, he hasn’t walked any of the eleven batters he’s faced and that’s a good indicator. Flores’ high ERA results entirely from the 2 runs he gave up in the first game of Spring, in which he entered with a five run lead. That’s three solid left-handed relievers. There’s also Keisler, Cate, and Narveson in camp, all pitching well—although Narveson noticebly not so often.

Wisconsin’s got a very good team. It looks like we’ll have some serious foul problems down the stretch here.

I’m going to fire up the grill for the first time of the season tonight. First, I’ll need to replace the rubber propane line that a rogue squirrel had chewn through last Fall. Glad to see the part is less than $20. Need a new grill cover, too. The old one tore apart in some bad storms last season and there’s a few rust spots on the lid. Think I’ll go ahead and grind those spots down to bare steel and spray on some new paint tomorrow morning if the weather cooperates.

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Guessing Game

Tuesday, March 6th, 2007

In today’s Bird Land, Derrick has this bit:

The first cuts of camp came down early Monday morning with eight players moving to the minor-league clubhouse. Chris Lambert, a first-round draft pick from 2004, was among the players assigned. The other seven (with one more coming tomorrow): catchers Bryan Anderson, Michel Hernandez, Ryan Christianson and Danilo Sanchez and pitchers Mike Parisi, Mark Worrell and Mike Sillman.

So here’s a guessing game that we’ll have a solution to in about 12 hours. Who’ll be the 8th cut?

My guess is Mike Smith, the last NRI pitcher (or catcher) aside from the surprisingly effective Kelvin Jimenez. He’s been pitching behind Wainwright, who’s been efficient enough to cut Smith’s outings shorter than they need to be for a guy who’ll need to be conditioned to start for Memphis. The next time he would have pitched would be in relief of Wainwright’s third start, and the way things are going, there wouldn’t be innings left for the relievers who need to get work in after Smith.

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